Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Iranian Confrontation: Commentary

In the past few weeks there has been a steady escalation in tensions between Iran and the West. The latest including Iran's Revolutionary Guard going on war alert in anticipation of an imminent strike. Whether a strike actually materializes is anyone's guess, but this is certainly something to be aware of, especially in the context of recent developments including mysterious explosions in Iran, downing of a US stealth UAV, and foreigners being recalled from the country. There is no doubt that the CIA is on the ground and that the recently downed UAV was intentionally operating in Iran. The US story about it straying into Iranian airspace is highly unlikely. Why? There is no need for a stealth aircraft in Afghanistan where the airspace has been secured by US forces for some time. Stealth aircraft are mean't to operate in "denied airspace" environments. The only place in the region that such airspace exists is in Iran. Overall, it is likely that covert operations including sabotage are taking place in Iran as well as enhanced UAV surveillance using stealth aircraft. This may or may not be the beginnings of more serious confrontation, but at the very least it represents ongoing covert warfare. In essence, the US is at war with Iran.

If the said war becomes overt it has the potential to become very dangerous by destabilizing the Middle East, disrupting oil supplies, and choking off any hopes of economic growth. The combination of war, high oil prices, and an increasingly hostile sentiment at home would quickly become a volatile cocktail. War with Iran shouldn't to be taken lightly as it would surely go down in history as a pivotal turning point with unpleasant repercussions for the entire world.

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